Seasonal Update

Goulburn Murray Valley had up to 10mm of rain reported in the area over the past seven days. Significant rain is forecast for the coming week.
South West Victoria saw 60mm of rainfall last week and silage production is up on previous years. Vetch continues to the cut in the Mallee, as well as cereal hay. The weather may not benefit all hay in the Mallee, however, the degree will vary.
Fortune favoured the brave as showers forecast earlier this month discouraged some from cutting. The wait for a clear forecast to cure their hay seen some vetch crops mature and start podding, rendering them unsuitable.
20mm of rain is forecast for the southeast South Australia this coming week. Rain has so far been timely for the area and has produced a good spring. Crops continue to do well.
Drizzly conditions have been prevalent the southwest Western Australia. With damp conditions and a cool change, hay is slow to cure. There are reports that some growers have had hay down for three weeks now.

Figure 1:  Last Weeks Rainfall

Weekly Rainfall

Figure 2: BoM 8-Day Rainfall Forecast

Total Forecast Rainfall - 6.10.2020

Figure 3: BOM-Australian Landscape Water Balance

Australian Landscape Water Balance, 6.10.2020


Figure 4: Precipitation Outlook

Precipitation Outlook

Trading and Marketing

Cereal Hay Values Into the Goulburn Valley 6.10.2020


Crops in the Goulburn Murray Valley area are doing well with the warmer days. Wet conditions in July and August are being hedged against with some use of fungicides. Advanced crops are being made into silage. Growers are waiting for the next weather front to pass before cutting any hay.
Inquiry is starting to come through for new season vetch and cereal hay in South West Victoria. Hay quality in the Mallee looks set to vary a little more than expected.All prices remain steady this week.

Change per t
Cereal hay +/- $0 $190-220 Steady
Lucerne hay +/- $0 $450-500 Steady
Straw +/- $0 $70-100 Steady
Pasture hay  +/- $0 $250-330 Steady

Western Australia

Across the Wheat Belt conditions have started to dry and growers made the decision to cut early.
Three quarters of the state has cut hay now but only approximately 10% of that yet been baled.
Conditions are varied and this is resulting in big difference in yields from one property to the next.
Hay plantings are significantly up this year.No changes to pricing to report this week.

Change per t
Cereal hay +/- $0 $330-370 Steady
Lucerne hay +/- $0 $450-490 Steady
Straw +/- $0 $120-140 Steady
Pasture hay  +/- $0 $200-220 Steady

South Australia

The Bordertown region is still three to four weeks off cutting hay. Further north some earlier crops have been cut.
Demand for new season hay hasn’t yet picked up, with stocks of old season crop still in place.

No change to pricing this week.

Change per t
Cereal hay +/- $0 $220-250 Steady
Lucerne hay +/- $0 $330-350 Steady
Straw +/- $0 $100-120 Steady
Pasture hay +/- $0 $180-200 Steady

Pictures of 19/20 Season Crops

Hay: Oaten Hay JC-1 Super (Oaten Hay SP)

Specifications: Feels crunching soft, no weather spots or stains, fresh aroma, <1% Rye Grass, JC-1 Super colour (95% Green) and JC-1 stem size (<5mm), Water Soluble Carbohydrates 32.5%. Inspected 29/11/2019.

Location: Dingee, Victoria 3571

19-20 Season Hay - Dingee, Victoria 3571

Pictures of 20/21 Season Crops

Hay: Oaten Hay: Yallara Variety

Specifications: Estimated yield of 7mt/ha, soil moisture is good, seeding date 25/4/2020, expected cutting date 28/09/2020, estimated baling date 26/10/2020, inspected 23/9/2020

Location: Womboota, New South Wales

20-21 Season Hay - Womboota, New South Wales

Sources: Bureau of Meteorology, Dairy Australia, WX Maps, Lachstock Research, Weekly Times, Grain Central, Mecardo Expert Market Analysis, AFIA (Australian Fodder Industry Association) & Feed Central.

By Katie Lindkvist, Wingara AG.