Seasonal Update

The Goulburn Murray Valley region remained dry this week. Not so for South West Victoria, which saw 120-160mm of rain.
South East SA also benefitted from a drier week. This is allowing crops to finish off, with cutting likely to begin in the next fortnight or so.
WA’s Wheat Belt continues to enjoy good conditions for drying and baling, too.

Figure 1:  Last Week’s Rainfall

Last Week's Rainfall -26.10.2020

Figure 2: BoM 8-Day Rainfall Forecast

8-Day Rainfall Forecast -26.10.2020

Figure 3: BOM-Australian Landscape Water Balance

BOM-Australian Landscape Water Balance - 26.10.2020.jpg


Figure 4: Precipitation Outlook

WX Maps Precipitation Outlook - 26.10.2020

Trading and Marketing

Cereal Hay Values Into the Goulburn Valley 26.10.2020.jpg


Wet weather has proven challenging for many Victorian growers. Forecast milder weather after the weekend will be a relief if it materialises.
Silage season is coming to an end in the Goulburn Murray Valley. Hay cutting has begun, although finding a drying window is a worry for many. This region has struggled to find a consistent dry patch.
Growers in the south west of the state have had better conditions. There may be instances of weather damage, but hay is generally baling very well.
Cereal in the Wimmera is yielding 8-10/tonnes and vetch is 3.5/tonnes and up. Mallee vetch is varied but yielding approximately 2-3.5/tonne. Growers are moving new-season hay into on-farm storage for better protection.
Milder conditions look to prevail following his weekend’s rain front. This will offer some relief if growers can get hay baled before then the front moves through.
Dairy farmers in Gippsland and southwest Victoria are looking to secure vetch and cereal hay and are snapping up what remains of last year’s product before moving on to the new season.Both demand and prices remain reassuringly steady this week.

Change per t
Cereal hay +/- $0 $190-220 Steady
Lucerne hay +/- $0 $450-500 Steady
Straw +/- $0 $70-100 Steady
Pasture hay  +/- $0 $250-330 Steady

Western Australia

Silage is still being made in Margaret River. Conditions are varied and this is resulting in big difference in yields from one property to the next, with pasture hay still being a few weeks off for many. Hay plantings are significantly up this year and growers now wait to see how their hay will grade.
Hay destined for the export market in parts of Western Australia is expected to be downgraded due to weather damage, at this stage quality is still to be determined.There were no changes to prices this week.

Change per t
Cereal hay +/- $0 $330-370 Steady
Lucerne hay +/- $0 $450-490 Steady
Straw +/- $0 $120-140 Steady
Pasture hay  +/- $0 $200-220 Steady

South Australia

In South East SA, forecast rain will mean growers holding off cutting for as long as they can to try to catch a dry patch. Most of South Australia’s oaten hay has been impacted by rain and now the cereal hay crop of Victoria and the Riverina are under threat.

Demand remains for new season product remains steady.

Change per t
Cereal hay +/- $0 $220-250 Steady
Lucerne hay +/- $0 $330-350 Steady
Straw +/- $0 $100-120 Steady
Pasture hay +/- $0 $180-200 Steady


Pictures of 20/21 Season Crops

Hay: Oaten Hay JC-2 (Oaten Hay SP), Yallara Variety

Specifications: Soft, weather spots or stains, fresh & sweet aroma, >1% Rye Grass, JC-1 colour (85% Green) and JC-1 stem size (<6mm), Water Soluble Carbohydrates 25.9%.

Estimated yield of 2.25mt/ha, soil moisture is good, seeding date 15/4/2020, cutting date 28/09/2020, baling date 19/10/2020. Inspected 20/10/2020.

Location: Bolton, Victoria, 3546

20-21 Season Hay - Bolton, Victoria, 3546-1

20-21 Season Hay - Bolton, Victoria, 3546-2

Sources: Bureau of Meteorology, Dairy Australia, WX Maps, Lachstock Research, Weekly Times, Grain Central, Mecardo Expert Market Analysis, AFIA (Australian Fodder Industry Association) & Feed Central.

By Katie Lindkvist, Wingara AG.