Seasonal Update

Rainfall has made curing difficult from central SA, across northern VIC, to NSW this week. Heavy crops and damp conditions make for slow progress.
Conditions in the Goulburn Murray Valley look favourable for growers who want to take a second cut of silage, despite continued rainfall in the area. The South West enjoyed some respite, with no significant rain this week. Growers will take stock of damage levels in the Mallee and Wimmera area.
South East SA also received some rainfall – up to 20mm in the week.
WA has generally had an easier time of it lately. No major rainfall in the region allowed growers to complete their cereal hay season. The eastern part of the Wheat Belt has missed any significant rainfall, with yields looking to be below average – in contrast to much of the rest of the country.

Figure 1:  Last Week’s Rainfall

Last Week's Rainfall -2.11.2020

Figure 2: BoM 8-Day Rainfall Forecast

8-Day Rainfall Forecast -26.10.2020

Figure 3: BOM-Australian Landscape Water Balance

BOM-Australian Landscape Water Balance - 2.11.2020.jpg


Figure 4: Precipitation Outlook

WX Maps Precipitation Outlook - 2.11.2020

Trading and Marketing

Cereal Hay Values Into the Goulburn Valley 2.11.2020.jpg


Goulburn Murray Valley – Big heavy crops in the area are requiring significant drying time and many growers already have weather damaged new season hay from the past fortnight. Late crops are being cut now and demand remains subdued in the region.
Rain-fattened crops in the Goulburn Murray Valley need longer drying times than usual. This will likely add to the stock of weather-damaged hay from the past fortnight. Quality in the region will likely come at a premium.
Dairy farmers in the west of the state are looking to fill a shortage in good quality cereal and vetch hays. Look to this area as a key driver of demand going forward.
Cereal hay in the Wimmera region is yielding 8-10/tonne and vetch is 3.5/tonne and up. Vetch in the Mallee is varied but yielding approximately 2-3.5/tonne. Growers are wisely moving excess hay to storage in anticipation of future demand.All prices remained steady this week.

Change per t
Cereal hay +/- $0 $190-220 Steady
Lucerne hay +/- $0 $450-500 Steady
Straw +/- $0 $70-100 Steady
Pasture hay  +/- $0 $250-330 Steady

Western Australia

South West WA has overcome challenging conditions around baling time to finish the reason in good stead. Crops have yielded from 4-9/tonnes, with premium-quality export hay making $270-$290/tonne on farm, and $200-$250/tonne for downgraded hay.
Growers in the Margert River area continue to make pasture hay.All prices remained steady this week.

Change per t
Cereal hay +/- $0 $330-370 Steady
Lucerne hay +/- $0 $450-490 Steady
Straw +/- $0 $120-140 Steady
Pasture hay  +/- $0 $200-220 Steady

South Australia

South East SA is also playing the timing game as growers wait for clearer skies to start cutting. Nerves will be tested as growers hold off for the best possible conditions. Curing could be an issue, as it has just across the border in VIC.
Some growers in the region have been stung with weather damage as the season reaches its climax.

Demand remains for new season product remains steady.

All prices remained steady this week.

Change per t
Cereal hay +/- $0 $220-250 Steady
Lucerne hay +/- $0 $330-350 Steady
Straw +/- $0 $100-120 Steady
Pasture hay +/- $0 $180-200 Steady


Pictures of 20/21 Season Crops

Hay: Oaten Hay JC-2 (Oaten Hay P1), Brusher Variety

Specifications: Crunching Soft, weather spots or stains, fresh aroma, >1% Rye Grass, JC-3 colour (70% Green) and JC-2 stem size (<8mm), Water Soluble Carbohydrates 29.1%.

Estimated yield of 4.5mt/ha, soil moisture is good, seeding date 15/3/2020, cutting date 14/9/2020, baling date 5/10/2020. Inspected 14/10/2020.

Location: Ouyen, Victoria 3490

20-21 Season Hay - Ouyen, Victoria 3490

Sources: Bureau of Meteorology, Dairy Australia, WX Maps, Lachstock Research, Weekly Times, Grain Central, Mecardo Expert Market Analysis, AFIA (Australian Fodder Industry Association) & Feed Central.

By Katie Lindkvist, Wingara AG.