Seasonal Update

Rain is making its mark on hay this season. Wet weather is likely to be a key driver of demand.
20-25mm of rain fell this week. This was ideal for crops, which are doing well in the Goulburn Murray Valley.
50mm of rain fell across southwest Victoria this week. Silage production is up on previous years.
The Brunswick area received 30mm of timely rain this week.
Across the Wheat Belt, conditions have become dry and growers made the decision to cut even though it was still early.
20mm of rain was recorded in South East SA. This has been timely for the area and helped drive a good spring. Crops in the region continue to do well.

Figure 1:  Last Weeks Rainfall

Weekly Rainfall - 19.10.2020.png.jpg

Figure 2: BoM 8-Day Rainfall Forecast

Total Forecast Rainfall -19.10.2020

Figure 3: BOM-Australian Landscape Water Balance

BOM-Australian Landscape Water Balance - 19.10.2020.jpg

 

Figure 4: Precipitation Outlook

WX Maps Precipitation Outlook - 19.10.2020

Trading and Marketing

Cereal Hay Values Into the Goulburn Valley 19.10.2020.jpg

Victoria

We expect hay cutting will start in the next ten days or so in the Goulburn Murray Valley region.
Vetch continues to be cut in the Mallee, as well as cereal hay. Inquiry is coming through for new season vetch and cereal hay. Haymaking continued to be hindered by rain with some parts recording over 20mm this week.Dairy farmers in Gippsland and Southwest Victoria want to secure good-quality new-season vetch and cereal hay. They are looking to contractors and traders to source product and terms for the next twelve months.
In northern Victoria, most of the oaten hay has been cut and is curing. Other Wimmera growers started cutting after the rain ended late last week and may manage to bale hay with minimal rain damage.

All prices remained reliably steady for another week.

Change per t
Cereal hay +/- $0 $190-220 Steady
Lucerne hay +/- $0 $450-500 Steady
Straw +/- $0 $70-100 Steady
Pasture hay  +/- $0 $250-330 Steady

Western Australia

Growers in the Margaret River area continue to make silage. Pasture hay is still three weeks off being ready.
Conditions are varied and this is resulting in big differences in yields from one property to the next.
Predicted average for cereal hay across the Southwest at this stage looks to be 4.5/tonne.Prices remain relatively high for all fodder types in Western Australia. The export industry continues to dominate the market and is a solid indicator on pricing. Exporters seek out quality hay and so will set the market price.

Hay plantings are significantly up this year and there was no change to pricing this week.

Change per t
Cereal hay +/- $0 $330-370 Steady
Lucerne hay +/- $0 $450-490 Steady
Straw +/- $0 $120-140 Steady
Pasture hay  +/- $0 $200-220 Steady

South Australia

The Bordertown region is still three to four weeks off cutting hay. Further north some earlier crops have now been cut.
Growers will hold off cutting if they can, to try and avoid rains passing through the area.
Curing could be an issue, and has already been so, in parts of central South Australia and just over the border in the Mallee.
Hay making in central South Australia continued to be hindered by rain with some parts recording over 20mm this week. Central South Australian growers with wheat crops are considering taking them through for seed to be stored on farm rather than risking damaged hay.

No change in prices this week.

Change per t
Cereal hay +/- $0 $220-250 Steady
Lucerne hay +/- $0 $330-350 Steady
Straw +/- $0 $100-120 Steady
Pasture hay +/- $0 $180-200 Steady

 

Pictures of 20/21 Season Crops

Hay: Oaten Hay JC-1 (Oaten Hay SP), Yallara Variety

Specifications: Crunching soft and prickly, nil weather spots or stains, fresh & sweet aroma, <1% Rye Grass, JC-1 colour (85% Green) and JC-1 stem size (<6mm), Water Soluble Carbohydrates 25.9%.

Estimated yield of 5mt/ha, soil moisture is good, seeding date 23/4/2020, cutting date 21/09/2020, baling date 12/10/2020. Inspected 14/10/2020.

Location: Deniliquin, New South Wales, 2710

20-21 Season Hay - Deniliquin, New South Wales, 2710

Sources: Bureau of Meteorology, Dairy Australia, WX Maps, Lachstock Research, Weekly Times, Grain Central, Mecardo Expert Market Analysis, AFIA (Australian Fodder Industry Association) & Feed Central.

By Katie Lindkvist, Wingara AG.