Seasonal Update

Goulburn and Murray Valley – no significant rain to report this week. Crops in the area are doing well with the warm days. Many growers put out a second application of urea before the last rain. No rain to report in the last seven days in South West Victoria, the region has started to dry out, though not worryingly so. Any coming rainfall will be of benefit.

52mm of rain was recorded in the Margaret River area this week and northern parts of the wheat belt received a timely 20mm. Confidence has been restored in the west following more significant rain.

WA forecasts for rain in October, growers are wanting to make as much hay as possible before then. Reports suggest that the eastern parts have not received as much rain and crops are struggling.

No rain to report his week in Southeast SA, crops continue to do well. More rain would be ideal at the end of September.

Figure 1:  Last Weeks Rainfall

Australian Rainfall Analysis Week Ending 13.09.2020

Figure 2: BoM 8-Day Rainfall Forecast

Total Forecast Rainfall for 14.09.2020-21.09.2020

Figure 3: BOM-Australian Landscape Water Balance

BOM-Australian Landscape Water Balance


Figure 4: Precipitation Outlook

WX Maps Precipitation Outlook

Trading and Marketing

Cereal Hay Values Into the Goulburn Valley


The cattle market continues its rally, and this has played a big part in lower demands for the time of year. We expect farmers will take the opportunity to increase stocks in preparation for any future downturn in conditions.

Advanced crops in Goulburn and Murray Valley are being made into silage, however most farmers are still four weeks away from cutting hay. Immediate need is low, offering a good chance to increase stocks and protect against an unpredictable future.

Silage is being made and will increase towards the end of the month and into October in the South West of Victoria. There are still good supplies of local feed. Farmers are showing prudence, buying what they need to get through. Vetch continues to be cut in the Mallee.

Many growers are making sure they have the undercover storage available to carry as much as they can with an abundant season forecast.

All prices remain steady this week.

Change per t
Cereal hay +/- $0 $190-220 Steady
Lucerne hay +/- $0 $450-500 Steady
Straw +/- $0 $80-100 Steady
Pasture hay  +/- $0 $250-330 Steady

Western Australia

In South West WA demand remains unchanged. It will likely stay this way until new season hay is available.

The top of the wheat belt has had good spring growth. Oaten hay being cut now in the area and will go for either export or domestic depending on quality.
The Margaret River area will be able to make silage within the fortnight.

No changes to pricing to report this week.

Change per t
Cereal hay +/- $0 $330-370 Steady
Lucerne hay +/- $0 $450-490 Steady
Straw +/- $0 $120-140 Steady
Pasture hay  +/- $0 $200-220 Steady

South Australia

Reports across most regions show that it is one of the best production seasons experienced in some time. Growers who traditionally produce 50 percent hay and 50 percent grain in Southern Australia, are now considering pushing as much through to grain as they can. With the reports of a wetter than average spring and low hay prices, the risk is too high for some.

Despite reduced demand in Southeast South Australia, inquiries into new season hay are being made. Buyers want to take advantage of the predicted favourable pricing.
The demand that was expected to be felt over winter has not eventuated. With most farmers being well enough stocked themselves and grass staying viable they haven’t had to source extra roughage to carry their stock over. Lamb growers in the area that have kept stock after the market dipped, still have plenty of feed in paddocks.

No change to pricing this week.

Change per t
Cereal hay +/- $0 $220-250 Steady
Lucerne hay +/- $0 $330-350 Steady
Straw +/- $0 $100-120 Steady
Pasture hay +/- $0 $180-200 Steady

Pictures of 19/20 Season Crops

Hay: Oaten Hay JC-1 (Super Premium)

Specifications: Feels soft, no weather spots and stains, sweet and fresh aroma, >1% Rye Grass, JC-1 Super colour (95% Green) and JC-1 Super stem size (<5mm), Water Soluble Carbohydrates 33.3%. Inspected 27/2/2020.

Location: Tantonan, New South Wales 2731

Oaten Hay JC-1 Super, NSW

Pictures of 20/21 Season Crops

Hay: Oaten Hay

Specifications: Yallara Variety, estimated yield of 5mt/ha, soil moisture is good, seeding date 18/4/2020, expected cutting date 21/09/2020, estimated baling date 12/10/2020, inspected 10/9/2020

Location: Tantonan, New South Wales

Yallara Variety, NSW

Sources: Bureau of Meteorology, Dairy Australia, WX Maps, Lachstock Research, Weekly Times, Grain Central, Mecardo Expert Market Analysis, AFIA (Australian Fodder Industry Association) & Feed Central.

By Katie Lindkvist, Wingara AG.